Did Johnson affect Trump or Clinton? A note on the Libertarian vote in the 2016 presidential election
Research output: Working paper
It is widely suspected that the candidates of the US Libertarian Party usually take votes almost exclusively or at least predominantly from Republican Party candidates. A look at almost 200 published 3- and 4-way polls (March-October) in the 2016 US presidential election indicates that Gary Johnson’s candidacy affected both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, did so moderately, and none in particular. When controlling for other factors Clinton’s lead seems to have been negatively affected. This suggests that Libertarian support in 2016 to a large degree has come from voters who otherwise would have split more or less equally between Democrats and Republicans or not have voted at all.
Original language | English |
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Publisher | Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) |
Number of pages | 11 |
Publication status | Published - 1 Nov 2016 |
Series | MPRA Paper |
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Number | 74819 |
- Faculty of Social Sciences - Microeconomics, Analysis of collective decision making, Political processes: Rent seeking, lobbying, elections, legislatures, and voting behavior
Research areas
Links
- https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74819/
Other version
ID: 168277073